The year 2016 seems to me to have had quite a build-up. It might be that one of society’s new industries – the anniversary industry – has struck a particularly rich seam of things to commemorate this year and has been warming us all up for them. I’m already aware, for instance, that 2016 ‘marks’:
• The 400th anniversary of the death of Shakespeare – quite an important one, worth knowing about…
• 100 years since Einstein published the Theory of Relativity – it seems surprising to me that that is now a full century ago…
• We’re also still within the period of 100 years since the First World War, and the Battle of the Somme happened in July 1916
• And last, and also – I might argue – least, it’s now going to be 50 years since England’s only World Cup win in 1966.
In addition to all those historical events (well, most of them are historical) there are of course quite a few very significant events coming up in 2016, including the Rio Olympics this summer. We are very proud that a St Mary’s Calne alumna, Jessica Mendoza, has been selected to compete in the British Show Jumping Team in Rio.
This year promises to be full of significant votes and elections.
In London, there will be mayoral election, when we’ll see who triumphs between the frontrunners Zac Goldsmith for the Conservatives and Sadiq Khan for Labour. Not that this is the last we’ll hear of Boris Johnson, I am sure…
And nationally, there is very likely to be the massively important referendum on whether the UK should remain in the European Union – the timing is not yet certain but it has to happen by 2017 and it could even be as soon as this May. The last time there was a vote on this was in 1975 soon after the country joined the EU in 1973, so there has not been such a process for well over a generation.
But perhaps the election that is still most interesting to me personally is the US Presidential one in November. Well, I say it’s in November, but of course that is only the end of a mammoth and hugely costly process that has been underway for many months already. But it’s now really started in earnest and from February onwards, we’ll see the caucuses and primaries to choose the delegates who will go to the party conventions in July, at which the party’s candidates for the presidency itself will be chosen.
The first caucus is in Iowa on 1st February, followed by the first primary in New Hampshire, on 9th February. As the caucuses and primaries then continue through to June, the various possible presidential candidates gauge their support and most drop out. They say ‘there are only three tickets out of Iowa’, meaning that only the top three contenders can really continue after that process. Which will be interesting because there are only three remaining contenders on the Democratic side already, whereas there are still 12 Republicans – so maybe we’ll only have two Democrats after Iowa… All the speculation can actually get quite addictive.
There is a depressing and an exciting side to the US elections. What is really depressing is the fact that an ignorant bigot such as Donald Trump is so popular. But what is really exciting to me is of course the fact that at this point the bookmakers’ favourite is Hillary Clinton, who would be the first woman to become president – still an incredible state of affairs in 2016. We shouldn’t be too confident, however – she was also the favourite at the start of the caucuses and primaries in 2008 and that lead crumbled away.
Since Hillary entered public life she has been attacked for her gender and called everything from ‘harpy’ to ‘shrew’ to ‘feminazi’. According to Karen Blumenthal in her new Biography of Hillary Clinton: ‘Throughout her four decades in public life, Hillary has been described in ways, and held to standards, that differ hugely from those applied to her male counterparts. Her hairstyles and pantsuits have been parsed, critiqued and derided. Her warmth and likeability are regularly questioned. Now, as the leading candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination, and just weeks from the first primaries, she faces a bigger question still: how ready is America – and its vocabulary – for a female president?’
Her main rival for the Democratic nomination this time is Bernie Sanders, the 74 year-old senator from Vermont (Hillary is 68). Sanders’ ratings in Iowa and New Hampshire are apparently looking quite good, so hopefully history will not repeat itself.
Now, having declared my hand in terms of wanting to see the first female president, I want to make it clear that I’m not making any party political, left-right statements here. It’s just so untenable that we have never had a female president, it just has to happen.
I’m the first to admit that there are difficulties with the Clinton name, though. With Donald Trump apparently still among the frontrunners on the Republican side, it is probably fair to say that Hillary’s biggest danger is herself in terms of her relationship with the US media and her perceived distance from ‘ordinary people’ in the States. The Clinton name is certainly a double-edge sword but surely, with the wealth of experience she has of world affairs from her time as Secretary of State, she must be by far the most credible candidate that we’ve had for many years? She shouldn’t be held to account for the indiscretions of her husband, and relatively few serious issues have been pinned on her with all her years in the public eye. But then again, that ‘Washington insider’ image can really count against a candidate in the strange world of many of my fellow countrymen, with their deep mistrust of the political class.
So, I think it will be interesting to keep a close eye on the 2016 election campaign over the months to come. There’s a great chance that the outcome will be genuinely historic and, even if it isn’t, we’ll have learnt something about a very important process and also maybe something about the misogyny that can stand in the way of women who are aiming for the top in their chosen fields.
